I am an admitted “baseball junkie” who has followed, been part of and watched this game for many decades. Here is Part 1 with my predictions for the upcoming MLB season and my thoughts. Today we preview the National League and next Monday we will preview the American League. I would love your feedback and comments.
NL EAST
PHILADELPHIA – They made great additions and finally got Harper for the next decade plus. With McCutcheon, Realmuto and Segura, etc. will pay off for everyone. Aaron Nola is a future Cy Young candidate, plus Pivetta, Velasquez and getting David Robertson to close is very solid. If it all comes together, and it should, the Phillies should take the division.
WASHINGTON – No Harper, no problem. This team is stacked offensively and defensively. The additions of Yan Gomes, the return of Howie Kendrick, getting Patrick Corbin to make the rotation even better and the Nationals may finally win the division. With Soto, Robles, Rendon, Gomes, Adams, Zimmermann and pitching this team could win 94-95 games, but I don’t think so.
ATLANTA – The Braves are about a year ahead of schedule. With a young core of Albies, Acuna, Swanson plus the veteran Freeman that’s a nice group. If Josh Donaldson is the JD of the past, watch out. The pitching with has talent but also question marks and a bullpen with Venters and maybe Kimbrel returning this might be Hotlanta’s year, but this division is too tough.
NEW YORK – The Mets might just be the surprise team even without Cespedes for the first half. The roster with Nimmo, Frazier, Conforto, the additions of Ramos, Cano, Lowrie, etc., has elevated this team offensively and defensively. The pitching with DeGrom, Syndegaard, Wheeler, Matz, etc. can be scary good. If all goes right the Mets could add 8-10 wins to their 77 from last year.
MIAMI – What can we say about the Marlins? They have a former Yankee as manager, they have two former Yankees in the front office. They have no major league team on the field. That is all.
NL CENTRAL
MILWAUKEE – This team is so solid and with the one big addition, Yasmani Grandal, they are even stronger. Aguilar, Yelich, the return of Moustakas, Shaw, Braun, etc. and the offense is very strong. The pitching rotation may not have the “marquee” names but they can do the job. The bullpen is probably the best in the NL. Put everything together and the Brewers win 92 – 94 and division.
ST. LOUIS – Is the addition of Paul Goldschmidt enough to put the Cardinals in the post season? Maybe, but other pieces need to fit. Dexter Fowler has to rebound, Ozuna has to continue to show he is a power guy, but pitching is the key. Which Andrew Miller will they get? If he’s as dominant as in the past, a big plus. Wacha, Mikolas, Flaherty, etc. is a good young core. The Cardinals could make the playoffs, but I think they just fall short.
CHICAGO – Joe Maddon is a good manager and has a lot of talent on the Cubs, but there is one thing even Joe can’t control…..the egos and lack of chemistry. Bryant, Baez, Lester, Rizzo, etc. are all top line players and all march to the beat of their own drum. This team has the chance to be a 95 plus win team, but unless these guys play together as a team, winning 90 might be a struggle.
CINCINNATI – The Reds may be one of the most improved teams in the NL. They have a lot of talent that flies under the radar like Suarez, Schebler, Gennett, Paraza, etc. Votto is still a mainstay and the additions of Kemp and Puig from LA is a major plus. The new additions, will create some excitement in the Queen City and see the Reds finally climb out of the cellar and just fall shy of .500.
PITTSBURGH – Manager Clint Hurdle still doesn’t use modern analytics the way others do. They have decent pitching with Archer, Tallion, Williams, etc. They have a few offensive pieces with Marte, Bell, Dickerson. They won 82 games in 2018 and considering the division, the Reds improvement, the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, getting to 82 or better wins in 2019 isn’t going to happen.
NL WEST
COLORADO – This could be the most dangerous team in the West. They have solid pitching, starters and bullpen and big offense. With one of baseball’s top five players, Nolan Arenado, plus Story, Blackmon and their next new star David Dahl, the offense is even better. They won 91 in 2018 and have all the tools be better in 2019. They could unseat the Dodgers for the division crown.
LOS ANGELES – The Dodgers better be careful it won’t be easy. There is some concern regarding Kershaw and how healthy he will stay. But there is more to the Dodgers than Kershaw and they have plenty of firepower to withstand pressure from the rest of the division. Yet, with all they have 95-98 wins won’t happen. They will fall short and the Rockies will come out on top
SAN DIEGO – Okay they have Manny, but all that does for 2019 is speed up the rebuild but also increase their win total from 66 in 2018 to as many as 10-12 more in 2019. They have some excellent pieces around Machado and the #1 farm system in MLB. Watch out for Fernando Tatis Jr, he has star potential. Still, with Machado and some good talent the Pads will make some noise this year.
SAN FRANCISCO – This is Bruce Bochy’s last year managing and the only thing the Giants will give him is not finishing in last place. The team is a total mess, the pitching is so-so, the power output is lacking and no speed. Average defense and they more than likely will unload several players by mid season. When it comes to the Giants Bochy exits on an under .500 note.
ARIZONA – This is a team a couple of years ago looked like it could be the class of the division, but how times have changed. The D-Backs could be the NL’s answer to the Orioles. They have a couple of offensive pieces and a couple of decent arms, but it takes a lot more, especially in their division. They have nothing in the system to count on. It will be a long season in the desert.
FINAL STANDINGS
NL East
Phillies 91-71
Nationals 89-73
Braves- 88-74
Mets 85-77
Marlins 55-107
NL Central
Brewers 92-70
Cubs 89-73
Cardinals 87-75
Reds 80-82
Pirates 78-84
NL West
Rockies 93-69
Dodgers 91-71
Padres 80-82
Giants 77-85
Dbacks 74-88
NL Playoffs
WC : Nationals vs Cubs = Nationals
NLDS
Phillies vs Nationals = Phillies
Brewers vs Rockies = Rockies
NLCS
Phillies vs Rockies = Phillies
Awards
NL MVP : Nelson Arenado
NL CY Young : Aaron Nola
NL ROY : Ferando Tatis Jr.
MOY – Gabe Kapler
There you have our predictions for the National League. Check back with us next Monday and our look at the American League, plus our World Series prediction.
Art Koch, National Features & DVD Editor, NightMoves Magazine and AAN
